Bobby asked me yesterday if I could forward him links to websites that had long-range forecast (I had found some in the past to help predict the weather on our possible wedding days). He wanted to figure out the weather for the St. Jude Marathon. Here’s what I sent him:
DryDay doesn’t predict temperature, but you can get a free 30 day forecast of the chance for precipitation (you can pay and get up to 18 months). It even shows the data in handy bar charts: Short, yellow bars mean less chance for rain; higher, black bars mean more chance for rain.
DryDay says that the 2010 St. Jude Memphis Marathon (December 4) has a 60% chance of precipitation!
The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2-Month Weather Forecast
This gave a general forecast, saying that, “The December average temperature will be 47°. Precipitation will be 7″ (5″ above average in the South). December 1-4: Sunny, turning warm. December 5-9: Thunderstorms, warm. Winter will be colder than normal, with precipitation below normal in the North and above normal in the South.”
View the weather on a paticular day all the way back to 1946! Then if you love Excel like I do (thank you Operations Management with Dr. Tracy) you can copy and paste the data for each year into a spreadsheet (I used 1989-2009 because I didn’t have THAT much time to kill). There you can create averages, make graphs, etc.
So here are my predictions (place yer bets, place yer bets!) for 2010 from my Totally Unscientific St. Jude Memphis Marathon Weather Spreadsheet:
- Min Temp: 38.2
- Mean Temp: 46.0
- Max Temp: 56.6
- Precipitation: 0.3 Inches
- Snow Depth: 0.0 Inches
- Mean Wind: 9.4 MPH
- Max Sustained Wind: 15.3 MPH
- Max Wind Gust: 14.1 MPH
I really thought it would have snowed at one point on December 4th in the last 20 years, but no. (It just feels that cold) That column of information was useless.
If you look at the graph, I created a Mean Temperature Trendline that is different that just the daily mean temperature that was recorded. It shows that on average it has been getting a little colder over the past 20 years. Except for that December 4th in 2001: High of 75, Low of 57.9 and Average of 64.3 – Lets all keep our fingers and toes crossed for a day like that again!
Here are the spreadsheets in Excel and PDF format if you would like to view them: